Even though the street demonstrations in Tehran have held us spellbound, the real power struggle may be taking place within the council of senior clerics. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not not have the stature nor the charisma of his predecessor, the Ayatollah Khomeini who directed and led the Islamic Revolution. And the current Ayatollah's son seems to be calling the shots on the crackdown and oppression of the protesters. Although no one seems to think the Ayatollah is in any trouble with the senior clerics, there could be a real struggle over his successor. He seems to be grooming his son (shades of North Korea?), but the reformers on the council led by former president, Rafsanjani, seem to have no respect for him. The disputed election and the treatment of the demonstrators actually may have strenghtened the the hand of the reformers on the clerical council. So, ironically, the struggle for the heart and soul of Iran's Islamic Revolution may be taking place not on the streets and rooftops, but in a room containing 86 old, bearded clerics. Isn't it interesting how inconsequential Ahmadinejad is in this whole situation?
Thoughts, anyone?
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I'm just dismayed by the number of people wounded and killed in the demonstrations. These 86 old men are dangerous or they don't have the power to control the police/army/Ahmaddinejad or don't care to. I hate that people become expendible in these conflicts.
ReplyDeleteI think they were caught off guard. After all, in a theocracy, they supposedly speak for God. Who would ever challenge God? As I said, I believe it is the current Ayatollah's son who is behind this and I think he has overplayed his hand. I have read many comparisons to Tiananmen Square when people thought the communist government could not survive the popular uprising. But, a government can make compromises with communist philosophy and thus we have the economic growth of China today. But, how can theocrats make compromises with religion? It goes back to the Newsweek idea that theocracies have to fail. The 86 old men are not all of one mind. I suspect some of them are just as dismayed as you.
ReplyDeleteI think that honestly nothing is going to change about the Iran situation apart from maybe more awareness from other countries. It is clear that the right wing religious extremists who are running the country set up this "reelection", but who can prove it? Iranian's rights are clearly being violated in the streets every day, but who can stop the violence? The problem lies in the system itself. The clerics like to give the allusion of democracy when in reality Ayatollah Khomeini has the power to make all the calls. It would be great if Rafsanjani and the more open-minded politicians and clerics could have their voices heard as well, but that's clearly not happening. As sad as it is, it will be a while before this corrupt system falls apart, because after all, if you disagree with it, you are surly against God (a crime punishable by death).
ReplyDeleteFor a more in depth view of the struggle, I strongly suggest this article:
http://original.antiwar.com/sahimi/2009/06/23/irans-election-drama/
I'm not quite as pessimistic as you. I see cracks in the power structure. The current rulers who really must have differing opinions were all young men (idealistic in a way) at the time of the Islamic Revolution. I think there must be some clerics who are appalled by what is happening. This is not what they imagined in 1979. I will check out the article, but not tonight.
ReplyDeleteLet me know what you think about the article.
ReplyDelete-This is Carlo by the way.
I read the article, Carlo. It shows how very complex the situation is. It is scary. It sounds like the old divine right of kings. Isn't it amazing to think someone believes this in 2009? But, what I took away from the article is that many people in Iranian politics are just power hungry and use religion as a cover for their greed. After reading this, I see why you have so little hope that anything will change for the better any time soon. In fact, it sounds as though things are getting much worse. It is ironic that Mousavi describes the fraudulent election as a "coup" after I just described the Honduran coup as the old fashioned, classic coup. There is is really no comparison between the two.
ReplyDeleteI like the comparrisons to Tienamen. Though, (and this may sound weird) Iran is more open now than China was then. So I think the popular uprisings have a good chance of sucess. Plus, another big difference, is that Iran is trying to pretend to be a democracy. China was (and is) not. When you hold pretend elections, you're basically saying you conceed that elections and democray are good things, even if you're not willing to have them for real. Plus, now there is the internet, which Iranians don't have blocked like they do in China.
ReplyDeleteI'm very optimistic about all this. I don't like that people are getting hurt, but I really beleive that things could change for Iran, and for the better.
And let's all thank president Barack Obama for not being arrogant and letting the Iranians define themselves. It has taken the regime's biggest weapon against resitance away from them.
But where is this change going to come from? They supposedly "recounted" 10 percent of the votes yesterday and they say that if anything, more people voted for Ahmaddinejad than was previously thought, but overall the vote was legitimate. Now I don't see anything that can be done. The opposition is going to get weaker because the regime isn't budging and people are getting killed, and all other countries can do is watch. What's the solution?
ReplyDelete